'The long-term chart for Gilts is very bearish. It is not possible to be bearish about gilt yields, and bullish about stock markets, the economy and inflation'.

With these stark words, Full Circle last week used empirical analysis and experience rather than blind polemic optimism to confirm what nby has been saying for months: Crash 2 is coming.

The company added:

'Nothing has happened to dim our optimism about the future for the gold price...this might go to $1500 an oz in the fairly short-term'.

This is not idle talk: Full Circle called gold's imminent rise at $812 an oz, so they know that of which they speak.

They were also right about poor lending controls, an overbought stock market, and toxic debt throughout 2007.

I must declare an interest here: I am one of their clients. As a result of this, my pension grew substantially during 2008 when everyone else's fell back. And before anyone begins to suspect that this is thinly disguised advertorial, I should reiterate that - as a matter of policy - nby does not accept advertisements from commercial organisations.

What this information does highlight, however, is that the deranged forecasts of the Government and its Treasury (which have now been wrong seven periods in a row) bear no relation at all to what's happening on the ground.

Recent nby postings ridiculing the way in which the Government is constantly 'shocked and surprised' by economic and fiscal data are meant as far more than just puerile satire: they are a warning to every voter in the UK.

The warning is not 'Vote Conservative'. Rather, it is a cautionary tale for everyone who would be led by feelgood predictions. The Establishment as a whole might have us believe that the worst is behind us, but this is rubbish: our current problems have been manufactured from a global switch in power from West to East, and exacerbated by dated social engineering ideas.

They are coming home to roost.

Last night (5.11.09) gold was trading at $1092 an ounce